Saturday, October 31, 2009

Trend shifts to down; sell-off extremes hint at bounce

The trend has shifted down in most markets; both Nasdaq and SPX are closing in on point and figure sell signals following their prices falling below EMA 34. Small Caps have been correcting (and leading the trend change).

Advance-decline ratios have plummeted to the point where, in the past, a short-term low has been made. Reviewing past extremes of the McClellan Oscillator, a 3-4% bounce in equities would not be uncommon. Stocks over their 50-day moving average (especially the Nasdaq) have dropped precipitously and are ready for a bounce. The Put/Call close at 1.21 has signaled short-term bottoms before. While these are elements that can contribute to the trend change to down, they bode watching for signs of short-term extremes as precursors for a bounce (isn't November a typically strong month for stocks)?

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