Friday, September 18, 2009

Overbought for how long?


There are many more technical analysts out there today than at the last bear market bottom. Many anticipating a retracement of the bear market rally (as it has achieved initial targets) have also cited potential seasonal weakeness to support a pull-back (as well as divergences). As major indices are now just entering overbought levels on a daily basis, we may hear that "overbought" can remain for a long time, so don't short "overbought." As Martin Pring frequently states, "an actual buy or sell signal can come only when the price series itself gives a trend reversal signal."


Our strategy is to remain long, add to basing stocks, take some profits and set stops. We expect that we will leave money on the table when this market corrects, and will not pick a top (or bottom).

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