Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Uptrend continues; Upside participation thins out; Dow Theory Confirmation

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SPX broke through resistance near 950 today; next support near 925. Advance-Decline ratio for both NYSE and Nasdaq have weakened during the last few days; the rally may become a stock-picker's rally for a while as recent gains consolidate. Another reason for a consolidation of recent gains is the behavior of the dollar, The dollar may have formed a bottom (today's doji possibly marks the end of a 5-wave downtrend). As the dollar has moved inversely to stocks, we may see a bounce in the dollar correspond with a decline in stocks.



As for Dow Theory, a recovery high in the Dow corresponded with the Transportation Index meeting its recover high, very close to a confirming signal on the upside.

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